
The final day of the University of Copenhagen’s Climate Change Congress moved on from the symptoms to the cure to the cost in its wrap-up sessions. After two days spent exploring the effects of climate change and the potential remedies, the final day took a pragmatic stance and studied the economic feasability of renewable energy and other climate change adaptations, as well as the feasability of ignoring the problem altogether.
A clear statement that came from the discussions on the conference’s final day was that no area of the world- coastal or otherwise- would be spared the effects of climate change. In a session entitled “Economic Costs of Adapting and not Adapting to Climate Change”, economists and scientists presented research that covered the globe. Some, like French researcher Stephane Hallegatte whose paper focused on hurricane damage in the United States, studied the link between climate change and natural disasters, while others, like Nigerian Abayomi Oyekale of the University of Ibadan, studied the lost revenues to climate change’s effects on agriculture, particularly in poor, developing nations. Even developed nations will feel the brunt in often surprising ways that will reduce their bottom line. Researchers from the United Nations University looked at the effect on Japanese ports an increase in tropical cyclones would have due to global warming. In no uncertain terms, it stated:
Adaptation to climate change is essential for the future growth of the Japanese economy. Port planners should therefore factor in this potential future increase in storm intensity when designing port capacities (to be able to prevent delays due to increased downtime) and sea defences (to limit damage due to higher possible future waves). Failure to do so could lead to future bottlenecks in the shipments of products, constrain Japanese economic growth and reduce the potential Japanese GDP by between 1.5 and 3.4% by the year 2085.
Perhaps the most sobering assessment came from researcher Lillian Yamamoto of Kanagawa University. Her work studied what it would mean both economically and politically if Pacific island nations were literally wiped off the map, submerged by climate change. In her own words:
It is urgent that the international community develops a legal status to those who have to leave their countries of origin due to the environmental effects of global warming. The ‘environmental refugees’ will leave their countries, but what happens to their legal status, if the territory of their country disappears?
With the economic costs of inaction growing, researchers took a new interest in developing models to determine just how costly action would be. The conference took a special interest in the ‘environmental Marshall Plan” presented by Terry Barker, of the Cambridge Center for Climate Change Mitigation Research. Barker argued that the costs usually associated with renewable energy and climate change mitigation could be lessened by following the example of the United States and investing in a ‘green New Deal’ that could form a worldwide network of support. Barker explains:
The current global financial crisis must be seen as a timely stimulus to tackling climate change, not a hindrance. If all G20 countries adopted a Green New Deal similar to that proposed by President Obama, the world economy could be greatly strengthened, especially the sectors producing low-carbon technologies…But global coordination is critical. Any single country’s New Deal may fail if its extra demand for goods and services are met with imports. If we act together, everyone’s exports will increase and we can recover employment much quicker.
If there was an overall message from the three days of scientific know-how on display in Copenhagen it was perhaps that: without global cooperation and a recognition of a shared cause, climate change would continue to make our planet a very different and perhaps unlivable world.
Image: Final session of the Climate Congress